Lunch with Caroline Dawnay, the head of the new literary agency, United Artists. Caroline has extraordinary eyes, and I was swept along by her enthusiasm, her goodness and niceness and the romanticism of the enterprise. All the agents there had turned down very well paid jobs - with taxis to take them to work and home in the evenings - for the sake of their independence and a dream of continuing to work together. It's going to be hard, she knows.
We talked about PFD, the agency they all walked away from and about the group led by former Sunday Times editor Andrew Neil that had bought it. Like everyone else in the business we were trying to make sense of it. If almost all the agents have walked away, what is left but a bit of backlist?
Here's one perspective.
There are may pressures on UK publishing that are going to push it into strange new shapes.
The death of the high street. Even the biggest chains - like Woolworths, M and S - are finding it hard to afford property there. How are the UK book chains going to prosper and adapt?
The great driver of bestsellers in publishing in recent years has been the supermarkets, but what if a recession causes them to focus on the core business - food?
Supermarkets sell books as part of an entertainment section that's mainly CDs and DVDs. In a year those won't exist as physical objects. Will supermarkets keep the section going just for books?
In the new year Amazon, Sony and others will begin a huge marketing push on e-book readers. Books will also be down-loadable onto phones and there will be a scroll onto which you can download thousands of books for those who want to continue to read on paper. Britain has a uniquely nerdy-techy culture - has done since Newton! - and i predict that Brits will take to these machines like nowhere else .(Combine this with nerdyness with the fact that books you want will become harder and harder to find on the high street.)
As Frank Skinner pointed out to me, buying physical books from Amazon to be sent through the post, the fastest trend in book-selling, is a strange mix of new and medieval technology. Much more natural to buy downloads on the net.
A huge part of the UK publishing industry depends on selling physical copies of American books by big, international authors - mostly thriller writers, to which UK publishers own the British and Commonwealth rights. When significant sales are downloads, these territorial boundaries will be impossible to maintain. As a customer in the UK why wouldn't you download the US edition? These US authors will realize that there is little value to them in giving a US agent, US publisher, UK agent and UK publisher a cut of their earnings.
Perhaps the biggest headache will be collecting revenues. I was recently proposing we take on a series on teenage books, and it seemed to me there would naturally be a big market for them downloaded as audio onto MP3s. I was told they'd just be shared for free like music. Why won't the same happen to downloads of written texts?
Advertising in books, a possible alternative stream of revenue, is something that many publishers and authors will find hard to contemplate.
As I predicted in the Independent on Sunday, changes in consciousness will bring them new art forms - more collaborative, multi-media, constantly mutating - that will eventually replace the novel.
So what is the prospect for UK publishers? I think that profits are there to be fought for, that greater and greater focus will have to put on creativity. The danger is that the revenue streams that currently support vast superstructures and many layers of management will slip out of their grasp.
The way of the future seems to me to be 'schools of thought', associations of like-minded authors, agent/editors and Internet gurus free to exploit what they create world-wide.
So if you were Andrew Neil, why would you want to spend a lot of money on an agency at the moment developing no significant front list but with a back list?
I think that if you were an international media mogul, a visionary for whom cash flow was no problem - let's take Rupert Murdoch, Neil's former employer as a random example - you might think that in ten years, when the problem of collecting from these shifting, currently elusive revenue streams has been sorted, the people who own copyright will be kings of the world.
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